January 2026 saw the wholesale market stabilise compared with late 2025. However, the increase in no-commodity cost has seen a rise in most customers costs. Non-commodities are now making up over 60% of customer bills, making wholesale fluctuations less impactful on total costs. These are to keep on increasing through 2030, with costs outlined for the next 5 years on most charges.

These non-commodity costs are expected to increase further in April 2026, with more RAB and transmission costs being introduced to fund new investments in both network and renewable energy improvements. With the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges forecast to rise by around 38% from April 2026.

The current geopolitical issues around the globe are a worrying factor for the UK wholesale energy market. The UK is heavily reliant on global LNG imports, meaning any conflict and supply disruptions in other regions will cause increased costs even if the affected sources aren’t directly supplying the UK. 

Conflicts impacting critical maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, increase insurance premiums and transportation costs for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers. These higher landed costs for LNG translate directly into higher UK business energy bills.

The Government and many businesses are looking at alternative ways to produce energy, with renewable sources being a key investment. 

Taken together, these factors highlight a fundamental change in how energy costs should be approached. With a growing proportion of charges outside customer control and future increases already signposted, the timing and structure of procurement decisions now play a greater role in managing overall cost exposure than attempting to react to short-term market movements.

PROCUREMENT STRATEGY

For businesses with contracts ending in Q1 and 2 of 2026, experts recommend securing quotes immediately. While long-dated contracts (2027+) show a benefit in securing sooner to avoid non-commodity increases. Although it may not be a priority for some clubs, it could save thousands in the long run.

Many clubs are looking to lock in prices to 2030 as the future pricing at present is appealing, and avoiding future increase is important for budgeting.

As the structure of energy costs continues to change, successful procurement outcomes will be determined less by short-term price movements and more by the ability to manage long-term financial exposure. With a growing proportion of energy bills now outside customer control, delaying decisions increases vulnerability to known and unavoidable cost pressures.

The most effective strategy in this environment is early engagement and informed commitment. By aligning contract timing with organisational risk tolerance and budget planning requirements, clubs can retain control over one of the few remaining variables in energy purchasing. Forward planning, rather than reactive buying, will remain the defining factor in securing value and stability in the years ahead.

At the GMG Energy Club we offer a wide array of energy reduction methods, these will not only help meet green targets but also reduce the club’s consumption and therefore reducing energy bills. Whether your club is interested in a small or large investment, we offer a free consultation call to discuss the options going forward. These solutions range from LED, Solar PV to good practice advise. All we need is a recent energy invoice and we can advise on potential solutions that may be of interest.

If you have any questions, or would like to explore what options are available for renewing your club’s energy contract, please contact [email protected]